Model-based assessment of ecosystem services in coastal waters: The consequences of long-term human technological interventions

Author: Gerald Schernewski

Ecosystem services describe the direct and indirect contributions of nature to human well-being. Assessments of ecosystem services have become a central component of European environmental policy, as they make the economic and social value of nature visible in decision-making processes.

The use of socioeconomic data in combination with ecosystem model simulations is a new, comparatively reliable approach that has been tested using the Szczecin Lagoon (Oderhaff) as a case study. The Szczecin Lagoon is of extraordinary ecological and economic importance and has been intensively used and modified by humans for centuries. A key modification is the gradual deepening of the shipping channel through the entire lagoon from 6 meters in 1880 to its current depth of 12.5 meters. The assumption was that this deepening would significantly alter the exchange of water and matter between the lagoon and the Baltic Sea, thereby impacting the ecological development and usability of the Szczecin Lagoon.

The ecosystem services show significant changes over time: Sediment deposition in the lagoon has increased, and phosphorus and carbon retention has risen considerably. The increased exchange with the Baltic Sea has only a minor impact. However, current data clearly demonstrate the monetary value of the lagoon's ecosystem services:

• nitrogen retention: €166 million/year,

• phosphorus retention: €5 million/year,

• carbon storage: €0.4 million/year,

• active recreation: €61 million/year,

• landscape aesthetics: €36 million/year,

• wild fish catch: €3.2 million/year,

• transport: €32 million/year.

Monetary values ​​of providing, regulating and cultural ecosystem services in the Oder Lagoon per square kilometer of water surface per year.

These results stem from the collaboration between the DAM projects PrimePrevention and Coastal Futures II.

Publication:

Schernewski. G., Neumann, T., Piehl, S., Swer, N.M. (2025): Model-based valuation of ecosystem services in a Baltic lagoon: long-term human interventions and short-term variability. Environments, 12, 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments12020035