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Logo METAscales

Multiscale modelling of marine extremes and their socio-economic impacts

METAscales, led by Dr. Gabriel David (Technical University of Braunschweig), aims to develop multiscale models for the prediction of marine extreme events such as storms and storm surges and their socio-economic impacts.

Why do we do this?

Coastal and marine ecosystems face major risks from climate change and human activities. Extreme events such as storms, floods and heatwaves significantly affect biodiversity and the functioning of these ecosystems. These events occur at different spatial and temporal scales and are often difficult to predict. We need to understand and manage these impacts to ensure the resilience and sustainability of coastal and marine areas.

Photo of a lighthouse in a storm wave

Our goals

The project aims to develop accurate models covering different spatial and temporal scales to predict storms, hurricanes, storm surges and heat waves. We also want to increase the adaptive capacity and resilience of coastal and marine ecosystems. Our project partners work closely with scientists, authorities, local communities and other stakeholders to develop science-based measures and strategies that promote the protection and sustainable use of these ecosystems.

Our objectives in detail: 

 

1. Creation and validation of multi-scale models:

  • Development of models covering different spatial and temporal scales to predict marine extreme events.

  • Validation of the models by comparison with historical data and current observations.

 

2. Assessment of socio-economic impacts:

  • Analysis of the direct and indirect socio-economic impacts of marine extreme events.

  • Consideration of factors such as damage to infrastructure, impacts on fisheries and tourism, and population health.

 

3. Development of adaptive strategies:

  • Development of strategies to adapt to the predicted extreme events.

  • Recommendations for policy measures and management strategies to mitigate risks and promote resilience.

 

4. Scientific and technical cooperation:

  • Promoting interdisciplinary cooperation between scientists, engineers, policy makers and stakeholders.

  • Building networks and partnerships to jointly address the challenges.

Photo of the sea surf between brown-grey stones.

How do we do that?

We use cutting-edge technologies and methods to study the impacts of extreme events on coastal and marine ecosystems. These include observation systems, biogeochemical models and data analytics. By integrating knowledge and data, we work with stakeholders to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies that protect and promote the biodiversity and functioning of these important ecosystems. By integrating historical data and current observations, these models are validated to enable accurate predictions and build resilience to marine extreme events.

Transdisciplinary Living Labs

The living labs Wremen (Lower Saxony) and Nordstrand (Schleswig-Holstein) are spaces of collaboration and at the same time social testing grounds. They are places where local communities, academia, practitioners and administration come together to jointly tackle the challenges of dealing with place-specific marine natural hazards – challenges that affect all parts of society. The living labs generate actionable knowledge and test potential solutions in real-world environments, all with the aim of enhancing societal resilience.

Cross-disciplinary work is primarily driven by two committees at each location. One is the Living Lab Team which is composed of representatives from the diverse village communities and their local administration. The Living Lab Team proposed initial solutions to local, self-identified challenges in community-based disaster risk management. The other is the Living Lab Advisory Board which consists of regional experts in coastal protection, disaster management, and nature conservation. This committee bridges the gap between theory and practice in coastal and flood protection, not least by collaborating with researchers across METAscales disciplines. The Living Lab Teams and the Advisory Boards are closely interconnected through overlapping membership; there is also a lively exchange between them with the objective of jointly generating the most effective practical knowledge for action.

Wremen

The Wremen Living Lab Team established the concept of ‘neighbourhood representatives’ to build a community-based disaster preparedness system. This pivotal role in the village community has historical roots throughout the region. The representatives serve as advocates and facilitators of a neighbourhood network. Under the campaign slogan 'NOT ALONE IN AN EMERGENCY – strong in the neighbourhood, safe at the coast', Wremen was organized into nine neighbourhoods. In each, the neighbourhood representatives are establishing and revitalizing informal networks for crisis preparedness.

Nordstrand

At the living lab Nordstrand, local self-support structures for more resilient neighbourhoods are being initiated under the catchphrase ‘What if…?’. A public community get-together event in early 2026 fostered awareness for disaster preparedness with a humorous short play and a distributed custom-made 'fridge note for every Nordstrand household'. Self-efficacy is supported and tested in voluntary neighbourhood 'islands of warmth' across the seven polder communities. The aim is to network and to generate community-based emergency preparedness through mutual aid in case of extreme events or crises.

Expected results

  • Multi-scale models: Development and validation of multi-scale models for predicting marine extreme events.

  • Socioeconomic analyses: Detailed analyses of socioeconomic impacts and recommendations for risk reduction.

  • Adaptive strategies: Development of concrete measures to adapt to marine extreme events and increase resilience.

  • Cooperation and networks: Strengthening cooperation and exchange between science, politics and practice to jointly overcome challenges.

News

Network partners

  • AG Küstengeologie und Sedimentologie, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel

  • Bund für Umwelt- und Naturschutz Deutschland, Landesverband Bremen e.V.

  • Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt

  • Integrative Geographie, Universität Hamburg

  • Institut für Geographie und Geologie, Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg

  • Institut für Meereskunde, Klimamodellierung, Universität Hamburg

  • Institut für Raumordnung und Entwicklungsplanung, Universität Stuttgart

  • Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR)

  • Helmholtz-Zentrum hereon GmbH

  • Leichtweiß-Institut, Technische Universität Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig

  • Ludwig-Franzius-Institut, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover

  • Niedersächsischer Landesbetrieb für Wasserwirtschaft, Küsten- und Naturschutz

  • Technische Universität Hamburg

Contact

Picture of Dr. Ing. Gabriel David

Coordination

Dr.-Ing. C. Gabriel David

Technische Universität Braunschweig

Annika Klein_edited.jpg

Management

Annika Klein

Technische Universität Braunschweig

Publications

  • Alvarez, K. R., Bachofer, F., & Kuenzer, C. (2025). Potential of Earth Observation for the German North Sea Coast—A Review. Remote Sensing, 17(6), 1073. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17061073

  • Krieger, D., Weisse, R., Baehr, J., & Borchert, L. F. 2025: Machine learning driven skillful decadal predictions of German Bight storm surges. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL111558.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111558

  • Krieger, D., Baehr, J., Borchert, L., Brune, S., Sylla, A., Uddin, M. B. (2024). MPI-ESM-HR 1.2.02 extended seasonal prediction hourly atmospheric surface and daily oceanic output. DOKU at DKRZ. https://hdl.handle.net/21.14106/4e9ddccad5e9165aa3927b6cf96116eee3c3dbe7

  • Reiners, P., Obrecht, L., Dietz, A., Holzwarth, S., & Kuenzer, C. (2024). First Analyses of the TIMELINE AVHRR SST Product: Long-Term Trends of Sea Surface Temperature at 1 km Resolution across European Coastal Zones. Remote Sensing, 16(11), 1932. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16111932

  • Schulzki, T., Schwarzkopf, F. U., and Biastoch, A. (2025a): An Atlantic wide assessment of marineheatwaves beyond thesurface in an eddy- rich ocean model [dataset], GEOMAR Helmholtz Centrefor Ocean Research Kiel [distributor], https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12085/a3279a60-e9ef-437f-bd34-c3e156181e98

  • Schulzki, Tobias, Schwarzkopf, Franziska U. and Biastoch A. (2025b): An Atlantic wide assessment of marine heatwaves beyond the surface in an eddy-rich ocean model, EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-571

Links

  • Press Release about the project start: "Küstenschutz: Innovationen alleine reichen nicht" ​

  • Press release about the first joint meeting: "METAscales: Ein neues Kapitel in der Küstenforschung"
  • Project website Hydrologie und Flussgebietsmanagement
  • Project website Hydromechanik, Küsteningenieurwesen und Seebau
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